SELECTION SUMMARY
도입 판단 요약
Seasonal outlooks are reported as the probability of temperature being above normal, near normal, below normal or, where no definite seasonal guidance can be provided, equal chances. The seasonal outlooks are the cumulative skill calculated for regions where predictions are made. These forecasts are verified using a 48-month running mean of Heidke Skill score computed for seasonal outlooks for each 3-month seasonal mean (e.g., January-February-March mean; February-March-April mean; March-April-May mean; and so on). The previous dataset used to verify the CPC seasonal temperature outlook has developed a cold bias across a large portion of the western United States during the past 5-10 years. CPC has developed a new dataset which consists of Synoptic and Metar stations only, which is consistent throughout the historical and real time periods. This change will not impact the measure itself, nor how it is reported, but will remove biases identified in the old verification dataset, resulting in a more accurate performance indicator.
이 제품의 적합 용도와 제한 조건은 아직 검수하지 않았습니다. 태그와 카테고리는 찾아가는 길이지 적합성 보증이 아닙니다.